tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post213668946010428210..comments2024-02-20T01:52:53.299-08:00Comments on Futronomics: contrarian analysis of global macro trends, commodities, currencies, equities: On Bottom FishingMatt Stileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-79872804675492711662009-03-05T10:47:00.000-08:002009-03-05T10:47:00.000-08:00I should also add that when I am searching through...I should also add that when I am searching through companies that have little debt, my filters have no way of telling me if a certain company's debt matures soon or many years in the future. I don't doubt that there are many of the latter.Matt Stileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-6345346883403589012009-03-05T00:47:00.000-08:002009-03-05T00:47:00.000-08:00mannfm11, I think you're on the right track. When...mannfm11, <BR/><BR/>I think you're on the right track. When the entire thing bottoms out, the best investment opportunities won't be in the stock market. They'll be in providing basic services in your own communities. <BR/><BR/>So many businesses will end up going bust - not because they can't make money - but because they can't pay their debts. <BR/><BR/>There is literally nothing left of the small shopkeeper. The big behemoths that came in and took them over did it with debt. When they close down, the gap between supply and demand will be huge. Food, clothing, hardware, etc. <BR/><BR/>But the stock market will likely bottom years before the real economy, so there will be a time to own both.Matt Stileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-36438811929446370832009-03-04T21:25:00.000-08:002009-03-04T21:25:00.000-08:00To be honest, I have been thinking about the same ...To be honest, I have been thinking about the same thing. I think we go below the 30% point from the top of the major indexes before this thing finds a real bottom. This market is starting to look like Japan or 1930-1932. I read an email in my mothers email about 12 acres of land and 12,000 foot steel building near tollway extention for $1 million. If you could get $30,000 a year out of the building, that would be near 3%. Unless DFW stops growing suddenly, that land will bring $10 million in 15 years.mannfm11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06507232690375884354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-65676803895894764452009-03-04T21:21:00.000-08:002009-03-04T21:21:00.000-08:00If I thought we were going to have a real recovery...If I thought we were going to have a real recovery, I would probably buy energy stocks and MSFT and INTC. That group of stocks you posted with CSCO added in the duo I mentioned, you could probably do okay if you drew another 4 out of the hat and bought them all. But, you know INTC and MSFT didn't fare well this last bull. I have a hard time buying GOOG at its cap value because it bugs me that a search engine with a few other media nuances is one of the top 10 most valuable companies in the SPX. If they didn't run into anti trust problems, a company like MSFT could duplicate GOOG and maybe split market with them for a fraction of this amount.mannfm11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06507232690375884354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-60704411314027213352009-03-04T01:39:00.000-08:002009-03-04T01:39:00.000-08:00I like Akamai. They're a little short on cash, bu...I like Akamai. They're a little short on cash, but have no debt. Probably a takeout candidate.Matt Stileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-17444533503047030082009-03-03T20:48:00.000-08:002009-03-03T20:48:00.000-08:001973 Was also a good time to buy real estate.But t...1973 Was also a good time to buy real estate.<BR/><BR/>But today, there are just too many houses. How far must prices fall to make it a good deal, in spite of the oversupply?<BR/><BR/>http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-detroit-housingjan29,0,5435392.story<BR/>Says the median price of a house in Chicago is $7,500. I copied that price right, but did the paper get their story right?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-38004211003163997842009-03-03T13:16:00.000-08:002009-03-03T13:16:00.000-08:00Hey Matt,"So I will share my process with my reade...Hey Matt,<BR/><BR/>"So I will share my process with my readers in the hope that it is of some help."<BR/><BR/>Pls. do that, it will help for sure. I'm 90% in cash and waiting for some panic there to look for some picking and buy some stocks (I sold my short positions too early as usual :)).<BR/><BR/>Have a look at Akamai Technologies, it seems like the stock is in strong hands. I also bought recently Dragon Oil (they have some internal problems due to some improper behavior of some of their managers, so it might be a bit risky - look on their web site for a press release on the subject).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-82616850956580839772009-03-03T09:34:00.000-08:002009-03-03T09:34:00.000-08:00MDT and ABT have too much debt relative to their m...MDT and ABT have too much debt relative to their market caps for my liking. JNJ isn't bad, but I think their drug component could be vulnerable. <BR/><BR/>Certain corporate bonds look attractive. Convertibles as well. I'm staying away from most preferreds - we can see now that they are not treated well in the event of problems. <BR/><BR/>I don't particularly look at bonds as trading vehicles. They're more of an investment - something I'm not planning for a few years at least. That is, I'm pretty sure I can get Coca-Cola (for example) debt cheaper at a later time.Matt Stileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-90442097221220540042009-03-03T09:06:00.000-08:002009-03-03T09:06:00.000-08:00I would think the biggest opportunity currently wo...I would think the biggest opportunity currently would be in bonds or preferred stock?RRBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09022375119606981298noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-75299753176535570632009-03-03T07:32:00.000-08:002009-03-03T07:32:00.000-08:00What are your thoughts on Med Tech as a sector? A...What are your thoughts on Med Tech as a sector? ABT and JNJ are pricey, but MDT looks like a screaming buy with PE <10.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com