tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post2612460117287537191..comments2024-02-20T01:52:53.299-08:00Comments on Futronomics: contrarian analysis of global macro trends, commodities, currencies, equities: Technical Update 3.09Matt Stileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-65835975979830644782009-01-31T19:21:00.000-08:002009-01-31T19:21:00.000-08:00I find good stuff and keep going to it. I am conf...I find good stuff and keep going to it. I am confused as well about this printing money, as I don't believe people that use the term know what it means. The Fed was to put one dollar of unsecured currency out there and it would collapse. The best they can do is buy assets so the banks can pay each other. If the Fed monetized a billion dollars worth of bonds, the funds would end up in the banking system as liabilities of the banks, which would require they buy a corresponding asset, most likely the treasury the Fed used to create the cash. Few people understand that all the money created by the banking system comes with interst attached that is never created, so when the system is creating a socalled money supply, it is creating an even greater pile of debt that can't be paid by the money created. I don't know what the recent increase in money supply is about, but it sure isn't about buying cars and new homes, gasoline and paying retail. Best guess is it is for business liquidity and for some derivative asset settlement. Few of these guys are going to run off to walmart any time soon. <BR/><BR/>My real intention here was to praise your technical work Matt. You are using some indicators I am not schooled in, but I will say the 10 day MA of A-D is something close to something I used a few years back. I was trying to trade stocks a few weeks back when the market turned and had too much other stuff going on. I am a long term studier of big bear markets and under 3000 looks like the destination before we are done. The fundementals in the market are collapsing and even if they weren't, under all the long term valuation models I have looked at (I did a financial study of Shillers 130 years of data some years back), the market is far from cheap. I have begun to realize that they don't put anyone on CNBC to tell the truth about anything and won't buy into the idea stocks are cheap until they really are, which is a 6% or higher market dividend. I have written on the internet, mainly the Prudent Bear chat page for 8 years now and you will find a lot of stuff reposted around the net under my moniker mannfm11 in a search. I have a blog that a few of my long term readers go to that I write on from time to time, mainly to keep my thoughts in order. I am going to attempt to write something on how I perceive the banking business to work and attempt to diagram why I don't believe they are going to create any hyperinflation any time soon. Prudent Bear has a guy named Doug Noland who has been writing a weekly called the Credit Bubble Bulletin since 2000 and he seems to disagree with me. But, then again, I believe he is more concerned with the government going broke, which is more possible than I have thought in the past. When I get my post together, which might take a couple of weeks, I will drop you guys a note. Love your stuff. Barrymannfm11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06507232690375884354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-82996423748184616662009-01-30T16:15:00.000-08:002009-01-30T16:15:00.000-08:00Matt,Regarding some of your first comments on why ...Matt,<BR/>Regarding some of your first comments on why people blog or leave comments on blogs. Speaking for myself, it's to try to understand the positions of others who disagree and their level/scope of thinking. Are they repeating platitudes, have they done in-depth analysis in a specialized area that I may have missed, have they considered something outside the area of economics that I failed to consider, or what is it that causes them to come to a different conclusion? Another related reason would be to see if bringing additional facts into the mix causes that person to consider another viewpoint or whether they automatically regurgitate the echo inside their head.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-63195237198047382742009-01-30T10:09:00.000-08:002009-01-30T10:09:00.000-08:00Hi Joe. Thanks for stopping by. It is my opinion...Hi Joe. Thanks for stopping by. <BR/><BR/>It is my opinion that the "printing money" claim is a function of most people's misunderstanding of what money is and how it is created. Without going into too many details of the banking system (and to be perfectly honest, I suspect some of my readers have a better understanding of it than I do), it is imperative to know that in order for the supply of money and credit to expand, enough credit needs to not only be offered, but taken as well. In my opinion, we are in a secular period of debt aversion. That is, "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink." <BR/><BR/>I think the global central banking cartel's attempt to reflate the supply of money and credit will ultimately fail. I don't think they're as omnipotent as most believe. <BR/><BR/>Therefore, my view on gold is that its primary value is derived from its inability to "goose-egg." It will hold its value as everything else is declining. And in addition, you can't be taxed on it like you can be on land or other stores of value. <BR/><BR/>Regards, <BR/><BR/>MattMatt Stileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-53479942371706563692009-01-30T09:21:00.000-08:002009-01-30T09:21:00.000-08:00Hi Matt,Love your blog. I found it because one day...Hi Matt,<BR/><BR/>Love your blog. I found it because one day it popped up as the top headline on google finance. I now check your blog daily.<BR/><BR/>I'm not a gold bug, but I think we could see gold go much higher. With all the central banks printing money it seems none of the paper money will have much value. Here's a quote from Dennis Gartman:<BR/><BR/>"Gold has become the second reserve currency, if you can’t go any place else, people are going to move into gold."<BR/><BR/>Joeamericarestraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05518743543724409592noreply@blogger.com