tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post4346142623939761654..comments2024-02-20T01:52:53.299-08:00Comments on Futronomics: contrarian analysis of global macro trends, commodities, currencies, equities: Themes for 2009 - Part 3 (Currency Outlook)Matt Stileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-69651605715766211522009-01-07T17:25:00.000-08:002009-01-07T17:25:00.000-08:00Hey found your blog when I was looking up recent U...Hey found your blog when I was looking up recent US vs Canadian trends.<BR/><BR/>I sure hope you are right about the Canadian dollar continuing to depreciate against the US, as I work in the US and live in Canada :)<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/><BR/>MattMedievalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17619648817606337248noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-63888860942916907232009-01-01T10:45:00.000-08:002009-01-01T10:45:00.000-08:00Anon: That is going to depend on how long it takes...Anon: <BR/><BR/>That is going to depend on how long it takes for the next round of deleveraging to occur. And the extent will also be determined in part by how much the ECB cuts interest rates. Currently, people are in the Euro because of the interest rate differential. <BR/><BR/>I expect that the recent high in the EUR (1.44) was probably the highest we'll ever see it again. But if that level were to be broken, I'd have to re-evaluate. <BR/><BR/>Happy New Year!<BR/>MattMatt Stileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-44794594945629318272009-01-01T08:26:00.000-08:002009-01-01T08:26:00.000-08:00Hi MattWhat are your expectations for the exchange...Hi Matt<BR/><BR/>What are your expectations for the exchange rate Euro- USD for the first quarter of 2009 ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-1925576876738658742008-12-30T01:51:00.000-08:002008-12-30T01:51:00.000-08:00Hi Rick, That is only true to a point. The Canadi...Hi Rick, <BR/><BR/>That is only true to a point. The Canadian economy is reliant on only 33.8% exports. A percentage of that is exported commodities (I don't know that exact figure). But it is safe to say that probably 15% of the economy is commodity exports. <BR/><BR/>To me, that is not enough to label it as a "commodity based currency" like so many analysts tend to do. <BR/><BR/>It is a "debt based currency" like all the others. And it's value will revolve around international opinion on our government's ability to repay that debt, and at what interest rate - relative to other currencies. <BR/><BR/>It would be of great benefit to me to see a higher Loonie. I just don't know what the catalyst would be for that to happen. <BR/><BR/>MattMatt Stileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-85334428103482563362008-12-29T13:17:00.000-08:002008-12-29T13:17:00.000-08:00I was hoping that you would see a brighter future ...I was hoping that you would see a brighter future Canadian dollar. After all, it is somewhat linked to commodities which have real value.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com