tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post6745266494088437372..comments2024-02-20T01:52:53.299-08:00Comments on Futronomics: contrarian analysis of global macro trends, commodities, currencies, equities: Social Mood Conspiring To Halt Reflation AttemptsMatt Stileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-73117702987859281772009-10-05T10:02:42.263-07:002009-10-05T10:02:42.263-07:00Matt, very good point about the government being t...Matt, very good point about the government being the biggest sheep of all. In the long run I agree that they cannot control the business cycle, but their misguided policies have nonetheless contributed to a lot of the problems in our economy. On a related note, I just read a really interesting article at <a href="http://www.goldalert.com/stories/Gold-Price-Up-Dollar-Down-Does-it-Really-Matter" rel="nofollow">http://www.goldalert.com/stories/Gold-Price-Up-Dollar-Down-Does-it-Really-Matter</a> that provides a great overview of the government's role in the economy. It specifically talks about the history of monetary policy in the US, and the Fed's role in debasing our currency. It also discusses the relationship between the dollar and the gold price, as well as potential investment implications for these assets classes.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10913988994660387610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-36059070249300797042009-10-02T07:50:39.870-07:002009-10-02T07:50:39.870-07:00Who told you that crap ?
Germans did. I lived in...<i>Who told you that crap ?</i><br /><br />Germans did. I lived in Germany for 6 months last winter. They don't like their major industries being held hostage to the whims of foreigners and taking paper in return. They'd rather have an even trade balance. Alles Klar? <br /><br /><i>Sheer nonsense.</i><br /><br />May I suggest you do a little reading on socionomic theory. <br /><br />The government and central banks are the biggest sheep of them all. They are classically late in determining trends and poor in understanding them. On a case by case look, it may seem that "the economic gods" control the markets. But in the greater scheme of things they are beholden to the whims of society's collective want - something that is always in flux.<br /><br />Regards,Matt Stileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-92168852411130578292009-10-01T16:49:33.562-07:002009-10-01T16:49:33.562-07:00Interesting article. Yes, the social mood is chang...Interesting article. Yes, the social mood is changing and it will change the way people behave but I don't fully agree with what Matt writes here. I see things a tad different. Matt is overstating the wisdom of voters.<br /><br />"Germans and japanese dislike their excessive dependence on foreign exports". Who told you that crap ? People couldn't care less. As long as there's enough employment for the people then both business and workers don't care whether the products they're producing are exported or not. Whether they're producing cars for the export (Germany) or bombs to be used in e.g. Afghanistan (US). Whether those products are subsidized or not.<br /><br />In Japan they had two "lost decades" and the japanese people are fed up with the LDP who ruled for more than 17 in the last 19 years. They blame the LDP for their current economic woes. And the current downturn simply added the final number of straws that broke the back of the camel called LDP in the elections. IMO, Japan voted against the LDP, not in favour of the DPJ.<br /><br />Although the DPJ senses that the winds are changing and that Japan must focus (more) on cooperation wiht asian countries and less with the US.<br /><br />"Social mood is forcing the government into a strong yen policy". Sheer nonsense. It's simply a matter of financial survival for Japan. Japan WILL - sooner or later - be forced to sell its US T-bonds in order to make a chance to survive. And that selling will push the yen up against the USD. And that doesn't bode well for the average japanese citizen.<br /><br />What went on Germany is more general shift to the right in economic challenging times. And that's happening not only in Germany. I don't consider it to be a protest against the "inflationary tendencies of big government" yet.<br /><br />"Protest against inflationary tendencies". Again sheer nonsense. The folks in the US are simply fed up with the fact the Gov. spends giant amounts of money to bail out their friends from Wall Street and the high(er) taxes that will be the result of that.<br /><br />The Obama administration is aware of the current protests against those giant spending programs and the taxcosts. Did you notice that the US general for Afghanistan (McChrystal) wants more US troops (45.000) deployed over there but Clinton/Obama are reluctant to give in to these demands. They know the US people opposed the bailout of Wall Street and now are very reluctant to provide those extra troops because they fear the opinion of the US taxpayers. But in the end the US IMO will send those extra troops.<br /><br />It seems the politicians ARE waking up.Willy2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-74004194158847203572009-10-01T15:22:45.151-07:002009-10-01T15:22:45.151-07:00U.S.A is a debtor country
Things change.
Roger...<i>U.S.A is a debtor country</i><br /><br />Things change. <br /><br />Roger, <br /><br />I'm operating with more conviction for most of the reasons you cited and am quite heavily short ATM (via puts in solars and indices). <br /><br />However, we are only down 1.4% on the week (basis SPX). A little bounce could turn into a big one if it looks like a positive week is in the cards. As mentioned on the weekend, two consecutive days like today would be a change in character. Ideally, we'd see a 90% down day too. <br /><br />The most bearish situation I can dream up for tomorrow would be a decent jobs number that pops the tape in the pre-market but gets sold hard at the open.Matt Stileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-16383969212938723582009-10-01T13:06:09.798-07:002009-10-01T13:06:09.798-07:00MR STILES
i will have to disagree with you, both ...MR STILES<br /><br />i will have to disagree with you, both Germany and Japan are net creditor countries, so have more to gain by controlling their money supply, but U.S.A is a debtor country and so will inflate its debts away, just like all the other countries haveamigausernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-74356834955397251482009-10-01T10:08:08.265-07:002009-10-01T10:08:08.265-07:00So, what do you say about today's action, Matt...So, what do you say about today's action, Matt? I guess the most convincing move down we have had in months? <br /><br />Specifically, I'd like to mention:<br /><br />1. SPX crossed 1039.47, which puts more credibility to the scenario that we are on the so-called P3. The remaining count suggesting we're in P2 is to have the move from 991.97 to 1080.15 as minute [i] of C of P2. That will be taken down if and when we breach 991.97.<br /><br />2. All major indices broke the uptrend line made from March lows, with Dow Transports leading the way since yesterday.<br /><br />3. Convincing breaks in the momentum indicator uptrend lines will also likely be found at the EOD.<br /><br />4. VIX broke the down-trendline convincingly. On the weekly chart, there's a good chance it will close above the BB 20, the last time it did was December 2008.<br /><br />5. JNK, LQD, HYG are plunging hard today, some 3%. That's huge 1-day move for bonds.<br /><br />6. The dollar & treasuries are up nicely.<br /><br />Of course, we always have to be ready for unexpected move up. I remember not so long ago I posted lists of evidence like this on this blog before... and I was proven wrong. Commodities are still holding up well today. Maybe the last thing they can jack up? I see $WTIC is backtesting the uptrend-line that was broken at around 68.<br /><br />However, it seems the weight of evidence how has tipped towards a reversal. What do you think, Matt?Roger Jnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-52425537810214000682009-09-30T10:17:28.913-07:002009-09-30T10:17:28.913-07:00Great article Matt, especially your allusion to de...<i>Great article Matt, especially your allusion to deterioration of moral values during periods of speculative excess. </i><br /><br />Most critics of capitalism refer to this degradation as an inevitable side-effect of the "profit motive" of greedy capitalists. In fact, essentially all of these negative side effects are caused by government and central banks themselves - the polar opposite of capitalism. <br /><br />As I mentioned above, "inflationism" is confused as a characteristic of "free markets" while the two are actually polar opposites, unable to coexist.Matt Stileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-32231715041099194872009-09-30T09:57:43.309-07:002009-09-30T09:57:43.309-07:00"Corporatism" is the best word to descri..."Corporatism" is the best word to describe our sociopolitical system. <br /><br />Socialism, Capitalism, or social democracy are all misused terms in today's world. And in my opinion they are used more to mislead than to describe anything coherently. <br /><br />If a literate martian were brought to earth, told to read political commentary, and then asked to define any of the above terms, it would be impossible to do so.Matt Stileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17977694389453612864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-80671862700863347872009-09-30T08:23:51.665-07:002009-09-30T08:23:51.665-07:00This is not communism/Marxism but an Oligarchy or ...This is not communism/Marxism but an Oligarchy or a soft Fascism. <br /><br />There is just way too much direct control over the government by the rich/ well connected and the large corporations for this to be called socialist.ViewFromTheSouthnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-13364776561039495602009-09-29T20:15:43.011-07:002009-09-29T20:15:43.011-07:00Singer Andy Williams is calling O-man following Ma...Singer Andy Williams is calling O-man following Marxism & trying to turn the US to a socialist country.<br />http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/celebritynews/6241196/Andy-Williams-accuses-Barack-Obama-of-following-Marxist-theory.html<br /><br />Well... I gotta agree w/ him.<br /><br />O-man looks more and more like a neo-com (as in "communist").Roger Jnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-25262947775218604362009-09-29T19:59:19.020-07:002009-09-29T19:59:19.020-07:00Great article Matt, especially your allusion to de...Great article Matt, especially your allusion to deterioration of moral values during periods of speculative excess. <br /><br />The best case scenario for us would be a deflationary one. By "US" I mean John Q. Public and not the oligarchy.<br /><br />If the government does not embrace inflationism writ large, then the only out left is default, which as painful as it is in the short term, would literally shock the crap out of us and get us back on track. <br /><br />The only thing stopping that move though is politics. This country is no longer united, it is factionalized, a condition the founding fathers both dreaded and warned against. Without the common carrot of economic prosperity, factionalism will run rampant and I do not think the United States will remain United (splitting up mainly along Red/Blue state ideological divides).<br /><br />So, I agree that deflation is where we need to go and where we will eventually end up. But it is gonna be a long bumpy and scary ride with bouts of both deflation and desperate inflation before capitulation wherever that eventually takes us.<br /><br />Its ironic to see how both the Germans and Japanese have dabbled with inflation with very different outcomes. It proves the theory that sometimes expansion of the money and credit supply can have deflationary effects in the overall economy if credit outpaces money as has been the case for about 20 years or so. Still it bears mentioning that even though the politics NOW are becoming more thrifty, when deflation really kicks up, people will be screaming for inflation, especially the boomers as they see all the promises made go up in smoke.Occdudenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2121490237517462736.post-87865117930938332162009-09-29T14:23:47.965-07:002009-09-29T14:23:47.965-07:00I've been wondering why the FDIC was thinking ...I've been wondering why the FDIC was thinking of doing such weird things to solve their funding problems when they already had a line of credit with the treasury. Makes sense.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10667102948777073875noreply@blogger.com