Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Tick Tock

Not much to post of late. I'm summoning my energies for a series of articles reviewing the past and looking toward the future. I always look forward to these articles. They allow me opportunity to clear away the poor analysis and build upon the good.

In the meantime, let me entertain you with a poem, courtesy of the Financial Times' deputy editor Martin Dickson. If nothing else, the appearance of this now, after such massive recoveries in asset markets confirms the Socionomic/Elliott Wave thesis of a secular bear market in social mood. A secular bull market - like that during the S&L crisis or LTCM - is typically quick to forgive bankers for losses they have incurred to all. A year after the carnage and it seems that antagonism toward the finance industrial complex grows more rabid by the day. As it should. Pass this on to your friends.

The Bankers Who Wouldn't Say Sorry; A Cautionary Tale

(With apologies to Hilaire Belloc)

There was a time when naughty boys
Would have to forfeit all their toys,
And go to bed without their food
To force a new, repentant mood
Upon the wretched little toads,
Who flouted our great social codes.

Nor was blind arrogance a trait
That parents liked to inculcate.
They had regard for social graces:
Not for their offsprings’ haughty faces.
A beastly child engaged in folly
Would surely have to say: “I’m sorry!”

But now we live in debased times,
Sans punishment to fit our crimes
Our moral compass has got lost,
Or on the rubbish heap been tossed.
As in this cautionary tale of bankers,
Who came to look like social cankers.

You will all know the basic story,
In all its venal details, gory.
Of how a bunch of peerless clowns
Despite degrees – from Yale to Brown –
Behaved like schoolboys in the lab,
When teacher’s gone to smoke a fag.

Exuberant beyond all reason
(For this or any other season)
Fired up by dreams of starter castles,
Sardinian yachts and vineyard parcels,
They built themselves a strange device –
A ticking bomb, to be precise.

The trouble was they did not know,
It was a bomb ’twas ticking so.
They thought it merely marked the beat
That called them to stay on their feet
And dance away – to really bop –
To music that would never stop.

At last the bomb it ticked no more.
Instead it gave a mighty roar
Like some avenging finance demon,
And destroyed RBS and Lehman.
That made the bankers wail and yelp,
And rush to teacher for some help.

Faced with the imminent demise
Of all world banks of any size,
And thus of global finance too,
The state bailed out this sorry crew.
But were they grateful? Not a jot,
This arrogant and greedy lot.

“It wasn’t us,” was their refrain.
The regulators are to blame.
They failed to prick our growing bubble.
They are the cause of all this trouble!
And China too, and central bankers,
Who failed to give us decent anchors.

“And while we’re at it, let’s include
Those nasty hedge funds, brash and crude,
We may have lent them stock to play,
But not to short poor banks at bay.
We’re sad events turned out this way
But not to blame; nothing to pay.”

Their minds so tainted by success,
They could not see their gross excess
Had played a very major role
In this colossal world own-goal.
Amnesia can be a sickness,
But this denoted arrant thickness.

Their attitudes were so repulsive
The public backlash grew convulsive,
And dimly seeing that their wages
Just might be threatened by these rages,
Self-interest prompted some to say
“We’re sorry” – in a muted way.

But actions more than words do speak
And their repentance was skin-deep,
Just like the artful crocodile
Shedding fake tears beside the Nile.
(And while we’re thinking of the zoo,
A vampire squid swims into view.)

“It’s plain,” they said, “we do not need
Tough regulation. Do not heed
The cries of all those sad dimwits
Who want to break us into bits.
Our little hiccup now has passed.
Back to the gravy train – and fast!

“To moral hazard give no thought!
We see no need to get distraught.
Please rest assured God’s work we’re doing
(It’s merely taxpayers we’re screwing.)
The Lord to us has sent a sign:
Monopoly profits are just fine.”

How could these people fail to see,
Their debt to all society?
The short answer must surely be
A banker’s mind is conscience-free.
They grab the profits of risk-taking,
Leave us the losses that they’re making.

The politicians fumed and fussed,
But they were well and truly stuffed:
The banking system had to work
Or jobless men might go berserk,
Victims of a growth disjunction
Piled upon finance malfunction.

In short, the banks – still big and burly –
Had got them by the short and curlies.
So their response was rather vapid,
And not decisive, hardly rapid.
Bankers returned to their old ways,
Assured a life of Christmas days.

Too big to fail, too hard to tame,
They returned to their former game:
Taking risks of insane folly,
To stuff their pockets full of lolly,
Untroubled, with the certainty
Of a taxpayers’ guarantee.

It would be good to end this story
In a nice blaze of moral glory,
Like Hilaire Belloc’s clever tales
Where evil-doing always fails.
Alas, the only moral here
Is bankers just themselves hold dear.

But there’s a price we all will pay
If politicians won’t display
A little courage and crack down
Upon these unsafe, grasping clowns:
Another bomb is being built,
By bankers with no sense of guilt.

It’s ticking now, will louder tick
Unless we stop it, fast and quick.
For mark my words, believe this rhyme,
It will go off in five years’ time.
You’ll hear no end of sturm and drang.
When it explodes with a loud BANG!


Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Happy Holidays

I'm taking a much needed few days off over the holidays. Thus, there will be no weekend commentary this week.

I'll be doing some in depth posting over the next few weeks, so stay tuned!

Let me wish my readers a happy and safe holiday season.

Best,

Matt


Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Technical Update 49.09/European Woes

Another week of gains for the US dollar was met with general indifference from equities around the world. Commodities also turned their cheeks to the currency market action, reminding us that correlations long-adhered to can break. Last week we were expecting a bit of a retrace in the dollar index and commodities which would allow for equities to put in new highs. That is still my working assumption. Yet with option expiry hangover, combined with 2 weeks of very low volume upcoming, I suppose anything is possible.

The weakness in the Euro is being blamed on sovereign concerns around the periphery of the EMU (European Monetary Union). Specifically, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, and Italy are the focus of most observers. But bear in mind that these issues are not somehow "unforeseen" as most imply with their surprise. Greece did not accumulate a 12.4% budget deficit overnight. Nor did Italy find itself with a total debt 1.14x its GDP. These have been very long-term problems. I, as well as many others, have been pounding the table with the untenability of this situation for a long time. And I ruminated back in the spring that the next round of this crisis would originate in Europe.

Social mood may have turned with the recent attention to these long-standing problems. And we know the kind of contagion that will result should this escalate. Let us not forget the issues facing Ukraine, Hungary, Romania and the Baltics. All major european financial institutions have exposure to these toxic emerging markets in addition to their hidden exposure to US subprime CDOs.

Below is a table from STRATFOR that details each Eurozone country and their debt burdens. Remember that the Maastricht Treaty forbids any country from surpassing a deficit of 3% of their GDP. Nearly every nation has completely ignored this. Germany's supposed new "conservative" coalition threw in the towel this week, suggesting they would escalate their deficit spending. If nothing else, this proves the uselessness of international regulations. When push comes to shove, any nation will look after their own asses first. It is this mentality that will, in my opinion, eventually lead to the breakup of the EU and the dissolution of the EMU. This process may have begun already. Or it may be dragged on for a decade or more longer. But the endgame is already written. A Euro will eventually be worth less than the "lowly" US dollar.



I recommend readers monitor CDS spreads closely as an indicator of the seriousness of these problems. Over a week ago, when stories started breaking about Greece's problems after a Fitch downgrade, their CDS premiums shot up to 232. Since then, Greek officials have said there is "no possibility" of EMU withdrawal or sovereign default. Yet, the assurances have not seemed to gain traction. Greek CDS now stand at 279. Intraday top movers in CDS premiums can be found at CMA Market Data.

Below is a chart of the Euro's performance. This makes 3 weeks straight of declines and essentially wipes out any of its gains from the previous 3 months. What's done can be undone in short order. Equity speculators should take note.



I am also including a number of charts from eastern European currencies relative to the Euro. Last winter, some of these currencies began blowing out. But assurances from the IMF managed to ease the fears - for a time. At issue are loans made in these countries (Latvia, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia) but denominated in other currencies (primarily the Euro, Swiss Franc and US Dollar). The availability of loans at very low interest rates; prospects of continuance in the decade long appreciation of local currencies; and eventual induction into the EMU were the primary forces driving asset bubbles in these countries. When the bubbles popped along with asset bubbles all over the world in 2008, their central banks began printing money to "stimulate" their economies. This had the effect of depreciating the local currencies and thus increasing the debt burdens of those who borrowed in foreign currencies. Default prospects increased, jeopardizing the solvency of their western lenders. This is where the IMF stepped in and gave some very vague guarantees with some very unknown preconditions. Most likely they instructed the eastern central banks to stop printing and told their finance ministries to instead introduce austerity measures. I wonder how long populist oppositions will stand for the rising unemployment that goes along with this? At what point will they simply say, "to hell with the western bank's losses, we default." Or, "to hell with the EU and the Euro, we're inflating our way out!" Either way, losses will eventually be realized on these malinvestments.

Hungarian Forint/Euro:


Polish Zloty/Euro:


Russian Ruble/Euro:


Ukrainian Hryvnia/Euro:


There are also potential issues in Bulgaria and Latvia, where currencies are pegged to the Euro. They were both scheduled to enter the EMU by 2012, but that now seems unlikely. If they decide to forego entrance, their pegs break and any loans made are essentially wiped out.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has another Euro-skeptic piece detailing the unsustainable nature of these austerity measures in southern Europe. Enduring deflation is the natural way out of things for the US, UK, Canada and essentially any country whose debts are largely domestically originated. But when this path is dictated by foreigners who got you into the problem in the first place, I can see how the political impossibility would lead to its failure.



Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Response to Robert Murphy

Robert Murphy of the Mises Institute had a good article out this morning titled, "A Case For The Inflation Camp." He talks about why he expects consumer prices to continue to rise. I recommend my readers have a glance over this.

As my readers know, I have a different take on matters. Below is the brief response I left in the comments section of Murphy's post. Feel free to weigh in with your own take.

The primary arguments in favour of deflation look less at consumer prices and more at asset prices, bank lending, debt/income or debt servicing ratios, demographics and social revulsion of excesses.

Many things can contribute to consumer price changes. This year we had a very large drop in inventories and capacity utilization which eased downward pricing pressures significantly in spite of falling consumer demand and reduced credit availability. We also had commodity prices rising from leveraged speculative bets by hedge funds.

The first two are like bullets in a six shooter. They can only be used once. I suppose the commodity speculation could be considered the very early beginnings of a "crack-up-boom," but other than gold, there seems to be little panic buying in the more "emotional" of these commodities (grains, energy). And it is precisely this fear (OMG, I might not be able to feed my family, "I'll take 10 sacks of rice!") that characterizes the CuB.

Until I see that kind of fear and still no willingness to quash it from central bankers, speculation of runaway inflation is premature.

One thing we can likely all agree on is that deflation "should" happen. We have too much debt and asset prices are too high to be supported by our incomes. And the easiest solution to this problem for those without access to a printing press (small businesses and consumers) is deleveraging. Considering they compose the largest sectors of the economy, their actions will determine the overall outcome.



Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Technical Update 48.09

Most major stock indices were flat around the world last week, even as the US dollar continued its push higher and commodities sold off significantly. The followthrough on the US dollar was something we were looking for last week as a key to the topping process we have been tracking for months. It has traced out a very nice looking 5 waves up (the Euro has done the inverse) and should now retrace that move in 3 waves down.

The blue chip stock indices have been the most resilient over the past few months as the FIRE sector (Financials, Insurance, Real Estate) has lagged behind considerably. It was a credit based bubble that popped in 2008 and it has been a credit based recovery. To me, this suggests that the overall structure of the economy has not changed. Therefore, weakness in these areas, much like during the 2007 rally, should be considered a leading indicator for the overall market. I am expecting the major indices to make marginal new highs next week, as the US dollar retraces but fails to make a new low. This should be the final non-confirmation prior to embarking on a monumental decline. This likely sounds like a broken record by now. We've been monitoring this process for months. Bears are now, to be sure, tired of waiting. I know I am. But to keep things in context: after a 53% rally in 6 months, the S&P 500 has rallied only 8% in the 4 months from August to the present.

The past few weeks have seen painstakingly quiet markets, reminiscent of John Kenneth Galbraith's account of the 1930 rally which he described, "as placid as a produce market." Despite the historical context of nearly all major bear markets retesting their lows to some degree, I have been able to find few market analysts/pundits willing to entertain that possibility. The idea of going back to where we came from is as preposterous to most now than dropping below Dow 10,000 was to most in 2007. Sure, many are expecting a correction, but little more than 10-20%. This is an incredible amount of confidence considering we have rallied more than 65% in just 10 months. I'd wager a guess that this is unprecedented confidence. Below is the Bull/Bear ratio, as determined by the Investors Intelligence survey.



The S&P 500 has traded within a 3.5% range over the past 5 weeks.



Crude oil has an opportunity to extend to the downside. Any continuation below Thursday's low substantially damages this chart.



As previously mentioned, the Euro has put in its most significant decline since June. A fairly swift retrace back up to 148-149 should occur prior to a resumption of the downward trend.



Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Sovereign Default Risk Puts Floor Under US Dollar

Note to readers: The following post originally appeared at Examiner.com. I have recently taken a position as their Canadian Economy writer. I will still be contributing to Futronomics, but some of the articles will be cross-posted. You will notice a difference in the style of writing in such articles, but I pledge to stay true to the spirit of my work to date. Naturally, the work will be a little more "Canada centric," but most will still have relevance for my American readers. Feel free to visit my Examiner page often and subscribe to my posts if you wish. I am paid minimally based on article views, subscribers and comments. However, this is more of a resume boosting endeavor, so we will see how it goes...

When Dubai World, the state backed infrastructure company, warned of its inability to meet obligations without assistance two weeks ago, some analysts noted that it had the potential to spark fears of other susceptible nations to do the same.

This week, markets have been tentative after rating agencies confirmed those fears with downgrades in Europe.

Greece, widely known to be the weakest among major EU economies, was the first to be given a downgrade by Fitch. Its rating was slashed to BBB+ and reiterated that further cuts may be in the offing. Standard and Poor's also expressed heightened caution a day earlier, stating that they have a "negative" outlook on the future direction of ratings. Ratings were also lowered on Greek commercial bank debt.

Ratings downgrades are considered significant events because certain investment institutions (such as pension funds) are only allowed to invest in debt that is considered investment grade. A downgrade could force selling of government bonds, pushing interest rates up and exacerbating the problems.

Fitch noted that the historical record of fiscal management in Greece had been poor and that they are, "not convinced that the substantive pension reform and other measures necessary to contain public spending pressures and broaden the tax base will be sufficiently strong to materially reduce debt."

Credit default swap contracts (the cost to insure against default) on Greek sovereign debt has risen substantially over the past two days to 232 basis points.

Spanish sovereign debt risk also rose, as Standard and Poor's put the nation on "watch negative."

Fears of greater contagion have put higher risk premiums on almost every European nation. As a result, the euro has fallen by 3% against the US dollar in the last week. Over the past few years, the US dollar has strengthened when risk aversion increases. The reaction could prove detrimental to other currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars, which have also benefited from risk seeking investors borrowing money in the US and taking it abroad.

Willem Buiter, professor at the London School of Economics, and incoming economist with Citigroup, suggested that a bailout by the European Union may be a last-resort option at some point for Greece. But certain German officials have warned against this, asserting that it could set precedents for other EU members such as Ireland, Italy, Spain, and Portugal to expect the same.

Watch a Bloomberg interview with Buiter below. Interested parties can follow daily CDS movements here.



Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Technical Update 47.09

Most indices posted large gains on the week, with previously underperforming groups (Semis, Small Caps, Transports, Utilities, Asia) taking the baton from the previous outperformers (like the Dow). Sector rotation is a signal of market strength and should not be ignored by market bears. Many of the negative divergences we have been tracking for months disappeared this week, showing a lack of ability for bears to capitalize on weakness.

There were, however, a few signals on Friday that may prove to be important for the bearish case. Nonfam payroll data was released, which beat expectations by a large margin. But after a short spike higher on the open, markets sold off for much of the rest of the day. This again proves my oft cited opinion that it is not the news that matters, but rather the reaction to it that we must give heed to.

The US Dollar was the big story on Friday, however. It posted its biggest gain in many months as the Euro and the Japanese Yen especially put in major reversals. It is my belief that the direction of the dollar holds more sway on equity markets than anything equity specific (carry trade), so it is not necessarily "cognitive dissonance in action" to ignore the many positive price movements in equities in favour of the evidence being displayed in the currency markets.



There's a lot to like in the chart above. It has decisively broken its down sloping trendline from March after briefly poking through 3 times in November. The RSI has, as pointed out over the past few weeks, displayed improving readings as the dollar has slowly drifted lower. It now pushes past the 50 barrier convincingly, which has proven to be the high water mark of the latest decline.



The weekly also displays some interesting signals. The MACD has crossed into positive territory along with the histogram. And stochastics are also looking bullish. The decline has been an 81% retrace of the previous advance, which, from an Elliott wave perspective, is not uncommon for a "wave 2" correction. This would imply sharply higher prices in a 3rd wave higher, which would greatly surpass the previous levels. Elliott waves are not always a useful tool, but when their patterns are as compelling as they are right now for the currency markets, extra attention is definitely warranted. Also of importance to the bullish outlook on the dollar is the current extreme sentiment against it, despite the fact that it is above where it was 18 months ago.



In fact, looking at the monthly chart, the extreme bearishness against the dollar looks even more unwarranted. It only sits a few percentage points below where it was in the early 90's. I'm fairly certain that if a survey of laymen were done and asked, "where is the USD relative to 17 years ago," the answers would be far lower, based on the steady barrage of "dollar doom" media coverage. I was recently forwarded an article where an interviewee responded with this intellectual gem:
As far as the "short dollar trade being too crowded," I'd dismiss it as nothing more than Nazi-style propaganda with no basis at all, only an underlying motive of trying to scare people out of their gold and silver positions so that the "bad guys" can take it from them.

I nearly hit the floor in hysterics.

As the near inverse of the dollar index, the euro also posted a large reversal day. The 50 day EMA remains as a barrier to lower prices, holding on all previous declines since the spring.



The Japanese Yen also had a sizable loss on Friday, giving up most of its previous gains of the past few months. Something looks like it went KABOOM here, and it would not surprise me at all to hear of hedge funds caught offside, betting against continuing correlations.



As always, followthrough will be the key to the importance of Friday's reversal. Over the past few months, we have documented dozens of opportunities like this for currencies, commodities and equities to change course. And in an almost comical ineptness, they have failed every time. We will know early this week, whether this is just another head-fake or the early stages of a resumption in trends that began 18 months ago.

Have a great week!

Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Dubai Podcast and Comments

Michael Surkan of the Optimistic Bear again invited me on his radio show to discuss the ongoing issue with Dubai and its potential knock-on effects around the world. As I mentioned in my technical update on the weekend, this issue itself is not likely large or relevant enough to cause a global bout of deleveraging. But it may contribute to a loss in the prevailing optimistic tone toward the ability of some sovereigns to make good on their debts. The assumption is that any sovereign in trouble will be bailed out or assisted by another sovereign, the IMF, etc.

But this may be a premature assumption. Explicitly guaranteeing the debts of other sovereigns may increase the perception of systemic instability. German finance minister Peer Steinbrueck learned this last year when he blurted something about not allowing any Euro member to go belly up. He later backed away from that statement, surely after being made aware of the implications: if Germany were to guarantee the debts of all euro nations, they themselves would be perceived as ultra high risk. Abu Dhabi is certainly aware of this potential issue, hence their reluctance to immediately back Dubai.

The next assumption is that many heavily indebted sovereigns will attempt to pay off their debts through traditional measures (tax revenues, inflation, austerity, etc). Many times these measures are not politically possible. So strategic default starts to become a legitimate way out. Once this begins, it is difficult to stop in its tracks. Nobody wants to be stuck paying interest on debts while their competitors operate debt-free. Eventually, this will happen. New political parties will be elected and will view the debt burdens as "obligations of previous regimes."

Right now they continue to play extend and pretend. Extend the duration of obligations and pretend that assets are worth more than they really are. That will work only so long as it appears beneficial for everybody involved (ie. rising stock market). Soon, the sheer mathematics overrun the ability to continue this. As Steve Keen put it so well recently, and as Karl Denninger continually posits, the world's debt burden relative to our productive output is too high and is only poised to rise. And the percentage of our incomes required to service this debt is also too high. This has a corrosive effect on our ability to invest in productive capacity which lessens the other side of the ledger (output). All of the above puts upward pressure on risk premiums (ie. interest rates), which self-perpetuates the worsening servicing ratios.

This is the "Minsky moment" we experienced briefly last year. Confidence was high that it could be prevented. We are now in the process of testing that theory. In my opinion it will fail and another Minsky moment will soon occur - this time with dramatically less confidence in the ability of central bankers to postpone its effects, and less political capital to act as they did before.

Listen to the podcast below (run time about 20 mins).



As always, comments are appreciated.

Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

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