Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Best of the Net - Tuesday September 30, 2008

There was steady buying all over the world today, as renewed 'optimism' about the bailout bill eventually passing grew. Lost on most people was the simple fact that none of this is about the bailout plan. The markets didn't tank on Monday because of the bailout not going through, it tanked because there was a sudden sentiment shift on main street. People finally understood that the credit crisis was going to affect their jobs and wages.

I don't know whether the markets will continue rallying or not. But my suspicion is that another (or potentially much worse) day like Monday is in our very near future. And again, it won't have anything to do with bailouts. It will likely have more to do with earnings and economic growth estimates being revised downward all over the world. Although the propaganda machines will be hard at work blaming any negative market action on anything but the real issues. A CNBC commentator even went as far, yesterday to say, "Opponents to this bill are acting almost Timothy McVeigh-like in their opposition."

That's right. It's economic terrorists that are the root cause of our problems!

Kevin Depew had a good post today titled, "What Everyone Knows"

I have always found that bars are excellent sources of advice. Everyone at a bar has an opinion about something, and the liquid lubricant makes everyone feel a lot more comfortable about sharing those opinions. I have also found that , more so than any other place, any advice someone gives you at a bar - "liquor before beer; never fear." or "one more for the road!" or "just put some fingernail polish on it and it will go away," for example - is something you should DO THE OPPOSITE of with extreme prejudice.

Hearing yesterday's conversations about Wall Street, it is clear to me that there are two things everyone knows with certainty:

1) The dollar is going down.
2) It is too late to sell stocks.

I have yet to meet anyone outside of Wall Street (and few even on Wall Street) who do not believe those two things are certain.

Mr Practical had a letter to anyone under 20 today on Minyanville. His conclusion is that the younger generation should be careful in listening to the older generations. Read: Borrowing On Our Future.

Calculated Risk had some good analysis on consumption expenditures in Estimating PCE Growth for Q3 2008.

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