In an interview with Bloomberg, Dennis Gartman gives very convincing reasons for commodities to continue their decline, while the dollar is to begin a new bull market as capital flees Europe and finds a new home in the US. Watch the interview here.
Calculated Risk notes that US Miles Driven Declines 4.7% from June
This could be seen as a sign that the economy is slowing, so businesses are cutting back their shipments and the unemployed are obviously not driving to work anymore. It could also be a sign that prices were just too high, so people cut back on driving they didn't absolutely need to do. It's likely a combination of the two.
Barry Ritholz writes on the $500,000,000,000 in losses so far accrued and the capital that is still needing to be raised to offset it in Bank Losses: Half a Trillion and counting
Thomas Woods gives a historical account of the Roosevelt gold confiscation during the last depression with The Great Gold Robbery of 1933 Will they try it again?
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Best of the Net - Tuesday August 12, 2008
Bennet Sedacca of Minyanville wraps up a 3 part series on the credit markets, where he describes the equity markets as irrational and the credit markets less so. The dichotomy between the two markets should be getting more attention in the media, but as usual does not. The bubbleheads on CNBC would far rather you believe some bank being up 6% on the day means the credit crisis is over. Thankfully, Bennet provides us with the real scoop A Tale of Two Markets, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3.
Frank Barbera takes a technical lense to the massive selloff in commodities and concludes that we may be at an intermediate term bottom in his Market Wrapup Commodity Correction - Coming Into an Important Bottom?
Robert Murphy at Mises.org discusses the absurdity of the recent SEC rules against naked short selling in a select grouping of 19 "VIP" financial stocks with Short-Sale Restrictions Are an Excersise in Naked Power
Tanta over at Calculated Risk is looking at the coming accelleration in Alt-A defaults in Subprime and Alt-A: The End of One Crisis, and the Beginning of Another
That's all for today...
Frank Barbera takes a technical lense to the massive selloff in commodities and concludes that we may be at an intermediate term bottom in his Market Wrapup Commodity Correction - Coming Into an Important Bottom?
Robert Murphy at Mises.org discusses the absurdity of the recent SEC rules against naked short selling in a select grouping of 19 "VIP" financial stocks with Short-Sale Restrictions Are an Excersise in Naked Power
Tanta over at Calculated Risk is looking at the coming accelleration in Alt-A defaults in Subprime and Alt-A: The End of One Crisis, and the Beginning of Another
That's all for today...
Monday, August 11, 2008
Best of the Net - Monday August 11, 2008
Chris Puplava talks about the ongoing tightening credit markets in Fed Senior Loan Survey Confirms Credit Crisis isn't over.
Kevin Depew continues his theme of socioeconomic change with Five Things You Need to Know: Word of the Moment - Frugality
Mike Shedlock talked about credit markets in Europe and the US in Lending Standards Tighten Again in US and Eurozone
Paul Kasriel of the Northern Trust talks about the same loan officer survey, but with some different charts and interperetations in his daily analysis
John Mauldin looks ahead at what he thinks will be an emerging asset class, when the western economies are ready to recover in a two part series The Rise of a New Asset Class, Part 1 The Rise of a New Asset Class, Part 2
John Hussman gives his weekly outlook and describes market traders in the current environment aptly in Nervous Bunny
If you're wondering why I've posted 3 articles (Kasriel, Shedlock, Puplava) that essentially talk about the same thing, it's because it is extremely important. Central Banks around the world have acted in co-ordination over the last year to support asset prices by making credit cheaper and easier to access for large banks. This survey says that it hasn't been working to its intended result. Banks have not been lending the money out into the economy, and are instead using it to increase their own loan loss reserves. As they write down the value of their assets, the 'money' essentially disappears.
This is the definition of deflation. A contraction in the overall supply of money and credit. Kevin Depew's theme of "it's cool to be frugal" is a manifestation of deflation in our society. These manifestations serve to exacerbate the condition as we become a culture of savers, driving asset prices down further. A viscious cirlcle only to be resolved by time and price.
Time and price. Remember that. It is the solution to our problems.
Kevin Depew continues his theme of socioeconomic change with Five Things You Need to Know: Word of the Moment - Frugality
Mike Shedlock talked about credit markets in Europe and the US in Lending Standards Tighten Again in US and Eurozone
Paul Kasriel of the Northern Trust talks about the same loan officer survey, but with some different charts and interperetations in his daily analysis
John Mauldin looks ahead at what he thinks will be an emerging asset class, when the western economies are ready to recover in a two part series The Rise of a New Asset Class, Part 1 The Rise of a New Asset Class, Part 2
John Hussman gives his weekly outlook and describes market traders in the current environment aptly in Nervous Bunny
If you're wondering why I've posted 3 articles (Kasriel, Shedlock, Puplava) that essentially talk about the same thing, it's because it is extremely important. Central Banks around the world have acted in co-ordination over the last year to support asset prices by making credit cheaper and easier to access for large banks. This survey says that it hasn't been working to its intended result. Banks have not been lending the money out into the economy, and are instead using it to increase their own loan loss reserves. As they write down the value of their assets, the 'money' essentially disappears.
This is the definition of deflation. A contraction in the overall supply of money and credit. Kevin Depew's theme of "it's cool to be frugal" is a manifestation of deflation in our society. These manifestations serve to exacerbate the condition as we become a culture of savers, driving asset prices down further. A viscious cirlcle only to be resolved by time and price.
Time and price. Remember that. It is the solution to our problems.
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